An urban air quality assessment based on a meteorological perspective.

An integrated approach to understanding all measured pollutants with multi-discipline in different time scales and understanding the mechanisms hidden under low air quality (AQ) conditions is essential for tackling potential air pollution issues. In this study, the air pollution of Sivas province was analyzed with meteorological and PM2.5 data over six years to assess the city's AQ in terms of PM2.5 pollution and analyze the effect of meteorological factors on it. It was found that the winter period (January-February-November-December) of every year except 2019-which has missing data-is the period with the highest air pollution in the province. In addition, the days exceeding the daily PM2.5 limit values in 2016, 2017, 2020, and 2021 were also seen in the spring and summer months, which inclined the study to focus on additional pollutant sources such as long-range dust transport and road vehicles. The year 2017 has the highest values and was analyzed in detail. Pollution periods with the most increased episodes in 2018 were analyzed with the Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) and Dust Regional Atmospheric Model (DREAM) models. As a result of the study, the average PM2.5 values in 2017 were 31.66 ± 19.2 µg/m3 and a correlation of -0.49 between temperature and PM2.5. As a result of model outputs, it was found that the inversion is intensely observed in the province, which is associated with an increase of PM2.5 during the episodes. Dust transport from northwestern Iraq and northeastern Syria is observed, especially on days with daily average PM2.5 values above 100 µg/m3. Additionally, planetary boundary layer (PBL) data analysis with PM pollution revealed a significant negative correlation (r = -0.61). Air pollutants, particularly PM2.5, were found to be higher during lower PBL levels.

A holistic approach to the air quality of Konya City, Turkey.

Considering an integrated approach to assess all of the measured pollutants in a diurnal, monthly, seasonal, and annual time scales and understanding the mechanisms hidden under low air quality conditions are essential for tackling potential air pollution issues. Konya, located in central Anatolia, is the largest province of Turkey with a surface area of 40,838 km2 and has different industrial activities. The lack of recent detailed studies limits our information on the underlying air pollution levels in Konya and obscuring policymakers to develop applicable mitigation measures. In this study, we used hourly monitored air quality data of CO, NO2, NOx, PM10, PM2.5, and SO2 from five stations in Konya and investigated the temporal and spatial variabilities for the 2008-2018 period via statistical analysis. Upon analysis, particulate matter was found to be the dominant pollutant deteriorating the air quality of Konya. The highest 2008-2018 periodic mean value of PM10 was found in Karatay Belediye as 70.5 µg/m3, followed by 67.4 µg/m3 in Meram, 58.7 µg/m3 in Selçuklu, and 43.7 µg/m3 in Selçuklu Belediye. The 24-h limit value of PM10 given as 50 µg/m3 in the legislation was violated in all of the stations, mainly during winter and autumn. High positive correlations were found among the stations, and the highest correlation was obtained between Selçuklu Belediye and Karatay Belediye with a Pearson correlation coefficient of 0.77. Long-term data showed a decreasing trend in PM10 concentrations. Diurnal variability is found to be more pronounced than weekly variability. For almost all of the pollutants, except for photochemical pollutants like O3, a prominent result was the nighttime and morning rush hours high-pollutant levels. A case study done for the January 29, 2018 to February 05, 2018 episode showed the importance of meteorology and topography on the high levels of pollution. Limitation of the pollutant transport and dilution by meteorological conditions and the location of Konya on a plain surrounded by high hills are believed to be the main reasons for having low air quality in the region.

Modelling black carbon absorption of solar radiation: combining external and internal mixing assumptions.

An accurate simulation of the absorption properties is key for assessing the radiative effects of aerosol on meteorology and climate. The representation of how chemical species are mixed inside the particles (the mixing state) is one of the major uncertainty factors in the assessment of these effects. Here we compare aerosol optical properties simulations over Europe and North America, coordinated in the framework of the third phase of the Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative (AQMEII), to 1 year of AERONET sunphotometer retrievals, in an attempt to identify a mixing state representation that better reproduces the observed single scattering albedo and its spectral variation. We use a single post-processing tool (FlexAOD) to derive aerosol optical properties from simulated aerosol speciation profiles, and focus on the absorption enhancement of black carbon when it is internally mixed with more scattering material, discarding from the analysis scenes dominated by dust. We found that the single scattering albedo at 440 nm (ω 0,440) is on average overestimated (underestimated) by 3-5 % when external (core-shell internal) mixing of particles is assumed, a bias comparable in magnitude with the typical variability of the quantity. The (unphysical) homogeneous internal mixing assumption underestimates ω 0,440 by ~ 14 %. The combination of external and core-shell configurations (partial internal mixing), parameterized using a simplified function of air mass aging, reduces the ω 0,440 bias to -1/-3 %. The black carbon absorption enhancement (E abs) in core-shell with respect to the externally mixed state is in the range 1.8-2.5, which is above the currently most accepted upper limit of ~ 1.5. The partial internal mixing reduces E abs to values more consistent with this limit. However, the spectral dependence of the absorption is not well reproduced, and the absorption Ångström exponent AAE 675 440 is overestimated by 70-120 %. Further testing against more comprehensive campaign data, including a full characterization of the aerosol profile in terms of chemical speciation, mixing state, and related optical properties, would help in putting a better constraint on these calculations.

Evaluation of impact of residential heating on air quality of megacity Istanbul by CMAQ.

Residential heating is one of the major sectors that contribute to emissions of harmful air pollutants in urban areas. In Istanbul, local sources are the main contributors of particulate matter levels. To quantify the contributions of residential heating sector to ambient particulate matter concentrations, we have developed an up to date spatially distributed high-resolution emissions inventory based on local activity data. The air quality simulations were conducted using the CMAQ (version 5.2). Our study results showed that our high-resolution emissions of the residential heating sector significantly improve the spatial distribution and concentration of air pollutants (SO2, PM10, PM2.5) for Istanbul. Air quality model simulations with our high-resolution emissions underestimated PM10 concentrations throughout the study episode on average by only 4.16% with a mean bias of 2.23 µg/m-3 while base inventory underestimated PM10 concentrations on average by 35.1% with a mean bias of 18.91 µg/m-3. Results show that our spatially distributed high-resolution emissions inventory produces more realistic results for Istanbul during wintertime when residential heating has the most influence on local air pollution.

Modeled deposition of nitrogen and sulfur in Europe estimated by 14 air quality model systems: evaluation, effects of changes in emissions and implications for habitat protection.

The evaluation and intercomparison of air quality models is key to reducing model errors and uncertainty. The projects AQMEII3 and EURODELTA-Trends, in the framework of the Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollutants and the Task Force on Measurements and Modelling, respectively (both task forces under the UNECE Convention on the Long Range Transport of Air Pollution, LTRAP), have brought together various regional air quality models to analyze their performance in terms of air concentrations and wet deposition, as well as to address other specific objectives. This paper jointly examines the results from both project communities by intercomparing and evaluating the deposition estimates of reduced and oxidized nitrogen (N) and sulfur (S) in Europe simulated by 14 air quality model systems for the year 2010. An accurate estimate of deposition is key to an accurate simulation of atmospheric concentrations. In addition, deposition fluxes are increasingly being used to estimate ecological impacts. It is therefore important to know by how much model results differ and how well they agree with observed values, at least when comparison with observations is possible, such as in the case of wet deposition. This study reveals a large variability between the wet deposition estimates of the models, with some performing acceptably (according to previously defined criteria) and others underestimating wet deposition rates. For dry deposition, there are also considerable differences between the model estimates. An ensemble of the models with the best performance for N wet deposition was made and used to explore the implications of N deposition in the conservation of protected European habitats. Exceedances of empirical critical loads were calculated for the most common habitats at a resolution of 100 × 100 m2 within the Natura 2000 network, and the habitats with the largest areas showing exceedances are determined. Moreover, simulations with reduced emissions in selected source areas indicated a fairly linear relationship between reductions in emissions and changes in the deposition rates of N and S. An approximate 20 % reduction in N and S deposition in Europe is found when emissions at a global scale are reduced by the same amount. European emissions are by far the main contributor to deposition in Europe, whereas the reduction in deposition due to a decrease in emissions in North America is very small and confined to the western part of the domain. Reductions in European emissions led to substantial decreases in the protected habitat areas with critical load exceedances (halving the exceeded area for certain habitats), whereas no change was found, on average, when reducing North American emissions in terms of average values per habitat.

Influence of anthropogenic emissions and boundary conditions on multi-model simulations of major air pollutants over Europe and North America in the framework of AQMEII3.

In the framework of the third phase of the Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative (AQMEII3), and as contribution to the second phase of the Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution (HTAP2) activities for Europe and North America, the impacts of a 20 % decrease of global and regional anthropogenic emissions on surface air pollutant levels in 2010 are simulated by an international community of regional-scale air quality modeling groups, using different state-of-the-art chemistry and transport models (CTMs). The emission perturbations at the global level, as well as over the HTAP2-defined regions of Europe, North America and East Asia, are first simulated by the global Composition Integrated Forecasting System (C-IFS) model from European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), which provides boundary conditions to the various regional CTMs participating in AQMEII3. On top of the perturbed boundary conditions, the regional CTMs used the same set of perturbed emissions within the regional domain for the different perturbation scenarios that introduce a 20 % reduction of anthropogenic emissions globally as well as over the HTAP2-defined regions of Europe, North America and East Asia. Results show that the largest impacts over both domains are simulated in response to the global emission perturbation, mainly due to the impact of domestic emission reductions. The responses of NO2, SO2 and PM concentrations to a 20 % anthropogenic emission reduction are almost linear (~ 20 % decrease) within the global perturbation scenario with, however, large differences in the geographical distribution of the effect. NO2, CO and SO2 levels are strongly affected over the emission hot spots. O3 levels generally decrease in all scenarios by up to ~ 1 % over Europe, with increases over the hot spot regions, in particular in the Benelux region, by an increase up to ~ 6 % due to the reduced effect of NOx titration. O3 daily maximum of 8 h running average decreases in all scenarios over Europe, by up to ~ 1 %. Over the North American domain, the central-to-eastern part and the western coast of the US experience the largest response to emission perturbations. Similar but slightly smaller responses are found when domestic emissions are reduced. The impact of intercontinental transport is relatively small over both domains, however, still noticeable particularly close to the boundaries. The impact is noticeable up to a few percent, for the western parts of the North American domain in response to the emission reductions over East Asia. O3 daily maximum of 8 h running average decreases in all scenarios over north Europe by up to ~ 5 %. Much larger reductions are calculated over North America compared to Europe. In addition, values of the Response to Extra-Regional Emission Reductions (RERER) metric have been calculated in order to quantify the differences in the strengths of nonlocal source contributions to different species among the different models. We found large RERER values for O3 (~ 0.8) over both Europe and North America, indicating a large contribution from non-local sources, while for other pollutants including particles, low RERER values reflect a predominant control by local sources. A distinct seasonal variation in the local vs. non-local contributions has been found for both O3 and PM2.5, particularly reflecting the springtime long-range transport to both continents.

Assessment and economic valuation of air pollution impacts on human health over Europe and the United States as calculated by a multi-model ensemble in the framework of AQMEII3.

The impact of air pollution on human health and the associated external costs in Europe and the United States (US) for the year 2010 are modeled by a multi-model ensemble of regional models in the frame of the third phase of the Air Quality Modelling Evaluation International Initiative (AQMEII3). The modeled surface concentrations of O3, CO, SO2 and PM2.5 are used as input to the Economic Valuation of Air Pollution (EVA) system to calculate the resulting health impacts and the associated external costs from each individual model. Along with a base case simulation, additional runs were performed introducing 20 % anthropogenic emission reductions both globally and regionally in Europe, North America and east Asia, as defined by the second phase of the Task Force on Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollution (TF-HTAP2). Health impacts estimated by using concentration inputs from different chemistry-transport models (CTMs) to the EVA system can vary up to a factor of 3 in Europe (12 models) and the United States (3 models). In Europe, the multi-model mean total number of premature deaths (acute and chronic) is calculated to be 414 000, while in the US, it is estimated to be 160 000, in agreement with previous global and regional studies. The economic valuation of these health impacts is calculated to be EUR 300 billion and 145 billion in Europe and the US, respectively. A subset of models that produce the smallest error compared to the surface observations at each time step against an all-model mean ensemble results in increase of health impacts by up to 30 % in Europe, while in the US, the optimal ensemble mean led to a decrease in the calculated health impacts by ~ 11 %. A total of 54 000 and 27 500 premature deaths can be avoided by a 20 % reduction of global anthropogenic emissions in Europe and the US, respectively. A 20 % reduction of North American anthropogenic emissions avoids a total of ~ 1000 premature deaths in Europe and 25 000 total premature deaths in the US. A 20 % decrease of anthropogenic emissions within the European source region avoids a total of 47 000 premature deaths in Europe. Reducing the east Asian anthropogenic emissions by 20 % avoids ~ 2000 total premature deaths in the US. These results show that the domestic anthropogenic emissions make the largest impacts on premature deaths on a continental scale, while foreign sources make a minor contribution to adverse impacts of air pollution.

Two-scale multi-model ensemble: is a hybrid ensemble of opportunity telling us more?

In this study we introduce a hybrid ensemble consisting of air quality models operating at both the global and regional scale. The work is motivated by the fact that these different types of models treat specific portions of the atmospheric spectrum with different levels of detail, and it is hypothesized that their combination can generate an ensemble that performs better than mono-scale ensembles. A detailed analysis of the hybrid ensemble is carried out in the attempt to investigate this hypothesis and determine the real benefit it produces compared to ensembles constructed from only global-scale or only regional-scale models. The study utilizes 13 regional and 7 global models participating in the Hemispheric Transport of Air Pollutants phase 2 (HTAP2)-Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative phase 3 (AQMEII3) activity and focuses on surface ozone concentrations over Europe for the year 2010. Observations from 405 monitoring rural stations are used for the evaluation of the ensemble performance. The analysis first compares the modelled and measured power spectra of all models and then assesses the properties of the mono-scale ensembles, particularly their level of redundancy, in order to inform the process of constructing the hybrid ensemble. This study has been conducted in the attempt to identify that the improvements obtained by the hybrid ensemble relative to the mono-scale ensembles can be attributed to its hybrid nature. The improvements are visible in a slight increase of the diversity (4 % for the hourly time series, 10 % for the daily maximum time series) and a smaller improvement of the accuracy compared to diversity. Root mean square error (RMSE) improved by 13-16 % compared to G and by 2-3 % compared to R. Probability of detection (POD) and false-alarm rate (FAR) show a remarkable improvement, with a steep increase in the largest POD values and smallest values of FAR across the concentration ranges. The results show that the optimal set is constructed from an equal number of global and regional models at only 15 % of the stations. This implies that for the majority of the cases the regional-scale set of models governs the ensemble. However given the high degree of redundancy that characterizes the regional-scale models, no further improvement could be expected in the ensemble performance by adding yet more regional models to it. Therefore the improvement obtained with the hybrid set can confidently be attributed to the different nature of the global models. The study strongly reaffirms the importance of an in-depth inspection of any ensemble of opportunity in order to extract the maximum amount of information and to have full control over the data used in the construction of the ensemble.

Evaluation and error apportionment of an ensemble of atmospheric chemistry transport modeling systems: multivariable temporal and spatial breakdown.

Through the comparison of several regional-scale chemistry transport modeling systems that simulate meteorology and air quality over the European and North American continents, this study aims at (i) apportioning error to the responsible processes using timescale analysis, (ii) helping to detect causes of model error, and (iii) identifying the processes and temporal scales most urgently requiring dedicated investigations. The analysis is conducted within the framework of the third phase of the Air Quality Model Evaluation International Initiative (AQMEII) and tackles model performance gauging through measurement-to-model comparison, error decomposition, and time series analysis of the models biases for several fields (ozone, CO, SO2, NO, NO2, PM10, PM2.5, wind speed, and temperature). The operational metrics (magnitude of the error, sign of the bias, associativity) provide an overallsense of model strengths and deficiencies, while apportioning the error to its constituent parts (bias, variance, and covariance) can help assess the nature and quality of the error. Each of the error components is analyzed independently and apportioned to specific processes based on the corresponding timescale (long scale, synoptic, diurnal, and intraday) using the error apportionment technique devised in the former phases of AQMEII. The application of the error apportionment method to the AQMEII Phase 3 simulations provides several key insights. In addition to reaffirming the strong impact of model inputs (emission and boundary conditions) and poor representation of the stable boundary layer on model bias, results also highlighted the high interdependencies among meteorological and chemical variables, as well as among their errors. This indicates that the evaluation of air quality model performance for individual pollutants needs to be supported by complementary analysis of meteorological fields and chemical precursors to provide results that are more insightful from a model development perspective. This will require evaluaion methods that are able to frame the impact on error of processes, conditions, and fluxes at the surface. For example, error due to emission and boundary conditions is dominant for primary species (CO, particulate matter (PM)), while errors due to meteorology and chemistry are most relevant to secondary species, such as ozone. Some further aspects emerged whose interpretation requires additional consideration, such as the uniformity of the synoptic error being region- and model-independent, observed for several pollutants; the source of unexplained variance for the diurnal component; and the type of error caused by deposition and at which scale.

Spatial and temporal analysis of black carbon aerosols in Istanbul megacity.

Black carbon (BC) is an important component of particulate matter due to its effects on human health and climate. In this study, we present the first BC concentrations measured in the Istanbul megacity (~15 million inhabitants). Two measurement campaigns have been conducted to measure BC and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) concentrations at four locations, characterized by different traffic densities. In the first campaign, BC daily mean concentrations have been found to be between 4 µg/m(3) and 10 µg/m(3). In the second campaign, BC and PM2.5 have been measured at the site with the highest traffic density for an entire year. Annually averaged BC contributes by 38 ± 14% to the PM2.5 levels (annual average BC: 13 µg/m(3) and PM2.5: 36 µg/m(3)). Diurnal variations of BC concentrations followed those of traffic density (correlation coefficient of 0.87). These measurements are essential to identify the sources of BC and PM2.5 concentrations in Istanbul and develop mitigation measures.

The impact of anthropogenic and biogenic emissions on surface ozone concentrations in Istanbul.

Surface ozone concentrations at Istanbul during a summer episode in June 2008 were simulated using a high resolution and urban scale modeling system coupling MM5 and CMAQ models with a recently developed anthropogenic emission inventory for the region. Two sets of base runs were performed in order to investigate for the first time the impact of biogenic emissions on ozone concentrations in the Greater Istanbul Area (GIA). The first simulation was performed using only the anthropogenic emissions whereas the second simulation was performed using both anthropogenic and biogenic emissions. Biogenic NMVOC emissions were comparable with anthropogenic NMVOC emissions in terms of magnitude. The inclusion of biogenic emissions significantly improved the performance of the model, particularly in reproducing the low night time values as well as the temporal variation of ozone concentrations. Terpene emissions contributed significantly to the destruction of the ozone during nighttime. Biogenic NMVOCs emissions enhanced ozone concentrations in the downwind regions of GIA up to 25ppb. The VOC/NO(x) ratio almost doubled due to the addition of biogenic NMVOCs. Anthropogenic NO(x) and NMVOCs were perturbed by ±30% in another set of simulations to quantify the sensitivity of ozone concentrations to the precursor emissions in the region. The sensitivity runs, as along with the model-calculated ozone-to-reactive nitrogen ratios, pointed NO(x)-sensitive chemistry, particularly in the downwind areas. On the other hand, urban parts of the city responded more to changes in NO(x) due to very high anthropogenic emissions.

Optimization-based source apportionment of PM2.5 incorporating gas-to-particle ratios.

A modified approach to PM2.5 source apportionment is developed, using source indicative SO2/PM2.5, CO/PM2.5, and NOx/PM2.5 ratios as constraints, in addition to the commonly used particulate-phase source profiles. Additional information from using gas-to-particle ratios assists in reducing collinearity between source profiles, a problem that often limits the source-identification capabilities and accuracy of traditional receptor models. This is especially true in the absence of speciated organic carbon measurements. In the approach presented here, the solution is based on a global optimization mechanism, minimizing the weighted error between apportioned and ambient levels of PM2.5 components, while introducing constraints on calculated source contributions that ensure that the ambient gas-phase pollutants (SO2, CO, and NOy) are reasonable. This technique was applied to a 25-month dataset of daily PM2.5 measurements (total mass and composition) at the Atlanta Jefferson Street SEARCH site. Results indicate that this technique was able to split the contributions of mobile sources (gasoline and diesel vehicles) more accurately than particulate-phase source apportionment methods. Furthermore, this technique was able to better quantify the direct contribution (primary PM2.5) of coal-fired power plants to ambient PM2.5 levels.

Quantification of highway vehicle emissions hot spots based upon on-board measurements.

The purpose of this study is to demonstrate a methodology for quantification of high emissions hot spots along roadways based upon real-world, on-road vehicle emissions measurements. An emissions hot spot is defined as a fixed location along a corridor in which the peak emissions are statistically significantly greater by more than a factor of 2 than the average emissions for free-flow or near free-flow conditions on the corridor. A portable instrument was used to measure on-road tailpipe emissions of carbon monoxide, nitric oxide, hydrocarbons, and carbon dioxide on a second-by-second basis during actual driving. Measurements were made for seven vehicles deployed on two primary arterial corridors. The ratio of average emissions at hot spots to the average emissions observed during a trip was as high as 25 for carbon monoxide, 5 for nitric oxide, and 3 for hydrocarbons. The relationships between hot spots and explanatory variables were investigated using graphical and statistical methods. Average speed, average acceleration, standard deviation of speed, percent of time spent in cruise mode, minimum speed, maximum acceleration, and maximum power have statistically significant associations with vehicle emissions and influence emissions hot spots. For example, stop-and-go traffic conditions that result in sudden changes in speed, and traffic patterns with high accelerations, are shown to generate hot spots. The implications of this work for future model development and applications to environmental management are discussed.

On-road measurement of vehicle tailpipe emissions using a portable instrument.

A study design procedure was developed and demonstrated for the deployment of portable onboard tailpipe emissions measurement systems for selected highway vehicles fueled by gasoline and E85 (a blend of 85% ethanol and 15% gasoline). Data collection, screening, processing, and analysis protocols were developed to assure data quality and to provide insights regarding quantification of real-world intravehicle variability in hot-stabilized emissions. Onboard systems provide representative real-world emissions measurements; however, onboard field studies are challenged by the observable but uncontrollable nature of traffic flow and ambient conditions. By characterizing intravehicle variability based on repeated data collection runs with the same driver/vehicle/route combinations, this study establishes the ability to develop stable modal emissions rates for idle, acceleration, cruise, and deceleration even in the face of uncontrollable external factors. For example, a consistent finding is that average emissions during acceleration are typically 5 times greater than during idle for hydrocarbons and carbon dioxide and 10 times greater for nitric oxide and carbon monoxide. A statistical method for comparing on-road emissions of different drivers is presented. Onboard data demonstrate the importance of accounting for the episodic nature of real-world emissions to help develop appropriate traffic and air quality management strategies.